May 14, 1999

©1998 Larsen

This table was created using a computer model for Old Age Survivors Insurance Program (OASI). It uses the mid level projection on population provided by the United States Census bureau. In addition, it uses the Average wage history from the Social Security Administration.

It divides the population of the United States into potential workers and potential retirees. It then compares using an iterative program the number of actual workers and retirees to match those reported by Social Security along with benefits paid. Using the United States Treasury Note Rate paid on OASI bonds, an average rate is calculated for the OASI fund. Future rate is calculated by assuming some US Treasury rate and averaging in the new rate with the current rate. A weighted average for each year is then used to determine the income to the OASI fund.

Economic growth is not used. Instead a wage growth is used. This wage growth then is used to calculate future OASI benefits using the OASI benefit formula. It also assumes best case which is everyone retires at 65. Retiring at 62 is worst case since Social Security would pay out sooner, for longer and loose this source of revenue. At 62 the OASI benefit is then adjusted by inflation.

SUMMARY

OASI goes cash negative in 2016.

OASI fund is exhausted in 2036.

Over the next 75 years, OASI runs a negative cash flow of $49.822 Trillion.

Interest to fund the $49.822 Trillion is $68.357 Trillion.

Total negative cash flow through 2074 is $118.179 Trillion.

Current present value of unfunded liability is ~$10 Trillion see Cold Turkey Analysis

SOCIAL SECURITY PROJECTIONS
YEAR	AVERAGE WAGE	TOTAL OASI REVENUE	TOTAL COST	SURPLUS /LOSS	INTEREST FROM BONDS	FUND BALANCE	WORKER/ RETIREE	BENEFITS PAYABLE	ECONOMIC GROWTH
1999	$27,743	$366,770,924	$336,645,675	$30,125,249	$45,829,729	$735,375,540	4.13	100%	3.4%
2000	$28,381	$379,508,644	$345,703,437	$33,805,207	$50,740,912	$819,921,660	4.15	100%	3.5%
2001	$29,034	$392,297,523	$356,568,362	$35,729,161	$56,164,634	$911,815,454	4.14	100%	3.4%
2002	$29,702	$405,751,491	$367,512,915	$38,238,576	$62,003,451	$1,012,057,481	4.14	100%	3.4%
2003	$30,385	$419,551,054	$379,211,787	$40,339,267	$68,313,880	$1,120,710,628	4.14	100%	3.4%
2004	$31,084	$433,756,925	$390,397,094	$43,359,831	$75,087,612	$1,239,158,072	4.16	100%	3.4%
2005	$31,799	$448,650,173	$402,645,921	$46,004,252	$82,404,012	$1,367,566,336	4.17	100%	3.4%
2006	$32,530	$463,856,296	$415,405,097	$48,451,199	$90,259,378	$1,506,276,913	4.17	100%	3.4%
2007	$33,279	$479,498,572	$429,635,820	$49,862,752	$98,661,138	$1,654,800,803	4.18	100%	3.4%
2008	$34,044	$495,464,231	$445,066,881	$50,397,350	$107,562,052	$1,812,760,205	4.17	100%	3.3%
2009	$34,827	$511,565,972	$464,412,821	$47,153,151	$116,923,033	$1,976,836,389	4.13	100%	3.2%
2010	$35,628	$528,420,458	$485,182,663	$43,237,795	$126,517,529	$2,146,591,712	4.09	100%	3.3%
2011	$36,447	$546,019,860	$506,099,393	$39,920,467	$136,308,574	$2,322,820,754	4.06	100%	3.3%
2012	$37,286	$564,108,912	$527,278,560	$36,830,352	$146,337,707	$2,505,988,813	4.04	100%	3.3%
2013	$38,143	$582,048,379	$551,357,363	$30,691,016	$156,624,301	$2,693,304,129	4.00	100%	3.2%
2014	$39,021	$598,172,416	$586,770,898	$11,401,518	$166,984,856	$2,871,690,504	3.88	100%	2.8%
2015	$39,918	$615,343,996	$620,345,075	($5,001,079)	$176,608,966	$3,043,298,391	3.79	99%	2.9%
2016	$40,836	$632,870,795	$654,901,845	($22,031,050)	$185,641,202	$3,206,908,542	3.70	97%	2.8%
2017	$41,775	$650,587,349	$692,089,108	($41,501,759)	$194,017,967	$3,359,424,750	3.62	94%	2.8%
2018	$42,736	$668,642,037	$730,990,766	($62,348,729)	$201,565,485	$3,498,641,507	3.53	91%	2.8%
2019	$43,719	$686,783,202	$773,174,754	($86,391,552)	$208,169,170	$3,620,419,125	3.45	89%	2.7%
2020	$44,725	$705,167,102	$818,127,809	($112,960,707)	$213,604,728	$3,721,063,146	3.36	86%	2.7%
2021	$45,753	$723,804,231	$865,588,797	($141,784,566)	$217,682,194	$3,796,960,774	3.27	84%	2.6%
2022	$46,806	$742,577,692	$916,547,360	($173,969,668)	$220,223,725	$3,843,214,830	3.18	81%	2.6%
2023	$47,882	$761,638,621	$970,147,838	($208,509,217)	$220,984,853	$3,855,690,466	3.09	79%	2.6%
2024	$48,984	$781,064,869	$1,025,358,647	($244,293,778)	$219,774,357	$3,831,171,045	3.01	76%	2.6%
2025	$50,110	$800,758,281	$1,076,576,116	($275,817,835)	$216,461,164	$3,771,814,374	2.94	74%	2.5%
2026	$51,263	$820,985,866	$1,128,947,341	($307,961,475)	$211,221,605	$3,675,074,504	2.87	73%	2.5%
2027	$52,442	$841,948,208	$1,182,002,202	($340,053,994)	$203,966,635	$3,538,987,146	2.81	71%	2.6%
2028	$53,648	$861,980,309	$1,244,508,126	($382,527,817)	$194,644,293	$3,351,103,622	2.74	69%	2.4%
2029	$54,882	$882,800,191	$1,307,671,095	($424,870,904)	$184,310,699	$3,110,543,417	2.67	68%	2.4%
2030	$56,144	$904,431,637	$1,372,344,418	($467,912,781)	$171,079,888	$2,813,710,524	2.60	66%	2.5%
2031	$57,435	$927,118,874	$1,436,339,923	($509,221,049)	$154,754,079	$2,459,243,553	2.55	65%	2.5%
2032	$58,756	$950,876,054	$1,499,782,136	($548,906,082)	$135,258,395	$2,045,595,867	2.50	63%	2.6%
2033	$60,108	$976,135,342	$1,560,522,421	($584,387,079)	$112,507,773	$1,573,716,561	2.47	63%	2.7%
2034	$61,490	$1,003,203,829	$1,616,974,983	($613,771,154)	$86,554,411	$1,046,499,818	2.45	62%	2.8%
2035	$62,905	$1,031,657,748	$1,671,713,831	($640,056,083)	$57,557,490	$464,001,225	2.43	62%	2.8%
2036	$64,351	$1,061,337,733	$1,725,289,047	($663,951,314)	$25,520,067	($174,430,022)	2.42	62%	2.9%
2037	$65,832	$1,091,682,882	$1,780,798,547	($689,115,665)	($9,593,651)	($873,139,338)	2.41	61%	2.9%
2038	$67,346	$1,122,458,866	$1,839,636,405	($717,177,539)	($48,022,664)	($1,638,339,541)	2.40	61%	2.8%
2039	$68,895	$1,154,174,509	$1,899,247,244	($745,072,735)	($90,108,675)	($2,473,520,951)	2.39	61%	2.8%
2040	$70,479	$1,188,289,925	$1,952,298,692	($764,008,767)	($136,043,652)	($3,373,573,370)	2.39	61%	3.0%
2041	$72,100	$1,224,454,095	$2,000,564,911	($776,110,816)	($185,546,535)	($4,335,230,721)	2.40	61%	3.0%
2042	$73,758	$1,262,159,037	$2,047,053,381	($784,894,344)	($238,437,690)	($5,358,562,755)	2.42	62%	3.1%
2043	$75,455	$1,300,618,303	$2,096,102,265	($795,483,962)	($294,720,952)	($6,448,767,669)	2.43	62%	3.0%
2044	$77,190	$1,340,487,970	$2,144,394,540	($803,906,570)	($354,682,222)	($7,607,356,461)	2.45	63%	3.1%
2045	$78,966	$1,380,777,708	$2,197,695,824	($816,918,116)	($418,404,605)	($8,842,679,183)	2.46	63%	3.0%
2046	$80,782	$1,422,103,832	$2,252,912,883	($830,809,051)	($486,347,355)	($10,159,835,589)	2.47	63%	3.0%
2047	$82,640	$1,464,066,081	$2,312,594,405	($848,528,324)	($558,790,957)	($11,567,154,870)	2.48	63%	3.0%
2048	$84,541	$1,506,243,623	$2,379,306,338	($873,062,715)	($636,193,518)	($13,076,411,103)	2.48	63%	2.9%
2049	$86,485	$1,549,740,643	$2,447,582,607	($897,841,964)	($719,202,611)	($14,693,455,678)	2.48	63%	2.9%
2050	$88,474	$1,594,079,186	$2,520,596,051	($926,516,865)	($808,140,062)	($16,428,112,605)	2.48	63%	2.9%
2051	$90,509	$1,649,304,665	$2,610,601,909	($961,297,244)	($903,546,193)	($18,292,956,043)	2.47	63%	3.5%
2052	$92,591	$1,697,283,983	$2,686,875,953	($989,591,970)	($1,006,112,582)	($20,288,660,595)	2.47	63%	2.9%
2053	$94,720	$1,746,592,861	$2,765,241,192	($1,018,648,331)	($1,115,876,333)	($22,423,185,258)	2.47	63%	2.9%
2054	$96,899	$1,797,266,968	$2,842,079,163	($1,044,812,195)	($1,233,275,189)	($24,701,272,642)	2.47	63%	2.9%
2055	$99,128	$1,849,342,906	$2,921,089,253	($1,071,746,347)	($1,358,569,995)	($27,131,588,984)	2.47	63%	2.9%
2056	$101,408	$1,902,858,239	$3,002,221,090	($1,099,362,851)	($1,492,237,394)	($29,723,189,230)	2.47	63%	2.9%
2057	$103,740	$1,957,851,512	$3,085,548,290	($1,127,696,778)	($1,634,775,408)	($32,485,661,415)	2.47	63%	2.9%
2058	$106,126	$2,014,362,282	$3,171,298,093	($1,156,935,811)	($1,786,711,378)	($35,429,308,604)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2059	$108,567	$2,072,431,138	$3,259,423,554	($1,186,992,416)	($1,948,611,973)	($38,564,912,994)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2060	$111,064	$2,132,099,733	$3,350,060,716	($1,217,960,983)	($2,121,070,215)	($41,903,944,192)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2061	$113,618	$2,193,410,808	$3,443,258,467	($1,249,847,659)	($2,304,716,931)	($45,458,508,781)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2062	$116,232	$2,256,408,222	$3,538,939,623	($1,282,531,401)	($2,500,217,983)	($49,241,258,165)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2063	$118,905	$2,321,136,978	$3,637,510,157	($1,316,373,179)	($2,708,269,199)	($53,265,900,542)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2064	$121,640	$2,387,643,256	$3,738,499,541	($1,350,856,285)	($2,929,624,530)	($57,546,381,357)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2065	$124,438	$2,455,974,440	$3,842,031,551	($1,386,057,111)	($3,165,050,975)	($62,097,489,442)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2066	$127,300	$2,526,179,151	$3,948,188,489	($1,422,009,338)	($3,415,361,919)	($66,934,860,700)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2067	$130,228	$2,598,307,277	$4,057,461,739	($1,459,154,462)	($3,681,417,339)	($72,075,432,501)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2068	$133,223	$2,672,410,008	$4,169,898,424	($1,497,488,416)	($3,964,148,788)	($77,537,069,704)	2.47	64%	2.9%
2069	$136,287	$2,748,539,868	$4,285,549,563	($1,537,009,695)	($4,264,538,834)	($83,338,618,233)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2070	$139,421	$2,826,750,747	$4,404,347,724	($1,577,596,977)	($4,583,624,003)	($89,499,839,214)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2071	$142,628	$2,907,097,940	$4,526,431,114	($1,619,333,174)	($4,922,491,157)	($96,041,663,544)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2072	$145,909	$2,989,638,182	$4,651,992,208	($1,662,354,026)	($5,282,291,495)	($102,986,309,065)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2073	$149,265	$3,074,429,681	$4,781,021,542	($1,706,591,861)	($5,664,246,999)	($110,357,147,924)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2074	$152,698	$3,161,532,163	$4,913,681,838	($1,752,149,675)	($6,069,643,136)	($118,178,940,735)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2075	$156,210	$3,251,006,903	$5,050,085,181	($1,799,078,278)	($6,499,841,740)	($126,477,860,754)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2076	$159,802	$3,342,916,769	$5,190,365,809	($1,847,449,040)	($6,956,282,341)	($135,281,592,136)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2077	$163,478	$3,437,326,264	$5,334,633,575	($1,897,307,311)	($7,440,487,567)	($144,619,387,014)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2078	$167,238	$3,534,301,565	$5,483,031,163	($1,948,729,598)	($7,954,066,286)	($154,522,182,898)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2079	$171,084	$3,633,910,565	$5,635,628,007	($2,001,717,442)	($8,498,720,059)	($165,022,620,399)	2.47	64%	2.8%
2080	$175,019	$3,736,222,922	$5,792,552,935	($2,056,330,013)	($9,076,244,122)	($176,155,194,535)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2081	$179,045	$3,841,310,097	$5,953,966,532	($2,112,656,435)	($9,688,535,699)	($187,956,386,669)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2082	$183,163	$3,949,245,407	$6,119,950,719	($2,170,705,312)	($10,337,601,267)	($200,464,693,248)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2083	$187,376	$4,060,104,067	$6,290,645,751	($2,230,541,684)	($11,025,558,129)	($213,720,793,060)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2084	$191,685	$4,173,963,242	$6,466,163,658	($2,292,200,416)	($11,754,643,618)	($227,767,637,095)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2085	$196,094	$4,290,902,094	$6,646,610,613	($2,355,708,519)	($12,527,220,040)	($242,650,565,654)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2086	$200,604	$4,411,001,837	$6,832,096,873	($2,421,095,036)	($13,345,781,111)	($258,417,441,801)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2087	$205,218	$4,534,345,784	$7,021,471,357	($2,487,125,573)	($14,212,959,299)	($275,117,526,674)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2088	$209,938	$4,661,019,404	$7,217,626,490	($2,556,607,086)	($15,131,463,967)	($292,805,597,726)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2089	$214,767	$4,791,110,378	$7,419,073,422	($2,627,963,044)	($16,104,307,875)	($311,537,868,645)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2090	$219,706	$4,924,708,652	$7,625,951,437	($2,701,242,785)	($17,134,582,775)	($331,373,694,205)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2091	$224,759	$5,061,906,498	$7,838,403,417	($2,776,496,919)	($18,225,553,181)	($352,375,744,306)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2092	$229,929	$5,202,798,568	$8,056,575,935	($2,853,777,367)	($19,380,665,937)	($374,610,187,610)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2093	$235,217	$5,347,481,963	$8,280,619,350	($2,933,137,387)	($20,603,560,319)	($398,146,885,315)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2094	$240,627	$5,496,056,288	$8,510,687,902	($3,014,631,614)	($21,898,078,692)	($423,059,595,621)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2095	$246,162	$5,648,623,719	$8,746,939,811	($3,098,316,092)	($23,268,277,759)	($449,426,189,472)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2096	$251,823	$5,805,289,068	$8,989,537,380	($3,184,248,312)	($24,718,440,421)	($477,328,878,204)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2097	$257,615	$5,966,159,850	$9,238,647,095	($3,272,487,245)	($26,253,088,301)	($506,854,453,750)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2098	$263,541	$6,131,346,351	$9,494,439,736	($3,363,093,385)	($27,876,994,956)	($538,094,542,091)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2099	$269,602	$6,300,961,700	$9,757,090,485	($3,456,128,785)	($29,595,199,815)	($571,145,870,691)	2.47	65%	2.8%
2100	$275,803	$6,475,121,940	$10,026,779,034	($3,551,657,094)	($31,413,022,888)	($606,110,550,673)	2.47	65%	2.8%