COLD TURKEY FOR OASI!

It was suggested the unfunded liability was some amount. I had calculated the amount of funds needed to fully fund OASI at about $10.69 Trillion at the end of 1999. This creates an unfunded liability of about $10 Trillion. The term unfunded liability meant many things to different people.

Therefore, it was decided to use the term unfunded liability to mean - those funds not in the OASI fund that would be required to pay all current claims (liabilities) if the OASI fund were to cease today. Anyone with quarters of work experience is eligible for OASI benefits when at a specified age. A calculation was done to determine the future benefits based on previous years worked for everyone between ages 32 and 65.

SUMMARY

The calculated unfunded balance for COLD TURKEY is $10,712,445,155,000 or $10.712 Trillion. This number is arrived at by subtracting the projected OASI fund balance at end of 1999 of $740,298,964,000 or $740.3 billion from the COLD TURKEY BALANCE IN 1999 of $11,452,744,119,000 or $11.45 Trillion.

Assumptions:

Wage growth is immaterial since there are no OASI taxes levied.

Inflation is assumed to be 1.7% for all years.

Those with 40 quarters (assumed anyone who is 32 years of age or older) will get benefits based on the current OASI benefit formula. See table 2 for summary of projected OASI benefits based on year of retirement (full) and birth year. Keep in mind early retirement reduced benefit by 5/9 of 1% for each month early. This reduces payouts in future years but adds to early years payouts. The best case scenario for OASI is to assume everyone retires at full retirement.
Note (1) The ROR listed is added to 5.5%. It is decreased by 0.05% per year to account for the reduction in interest rates. When no rate is listed, the rate of 5.5% is used. Example: 1999 used an interest rate of 6.95%. Be advised that a flat 5.5% changes the analysis by about $198.405 billion.

SOCIAL SECURITY COLD TURKEY PROJECTIONS
YEAR	ROR	TOTAL COST	SURPLUS /LOSS	INTEREST FROM BONDS	FUND BALANCE
1999	1.45%	$336,645,675	$39,890,833	$651,086,868	$11,452,744,119
2000	1.40%	$345,827,188	($345,827,188)	$629,900,927	$11,736,817,857
2001	1.35%	$356,965,554	($356,965,554)	$645,524,982	$12,025,377,286
2002	1.30%	$368,330,094	($368,330,094)	$661,395,751	$12,318,442,942
2003	1.25%	$380,664,329	($380,664,329)	$677,514,362	$12,615,292,975
2004	1.20%	$392,685,417	($392,685,417)	$693,841,114	$12,916,448,672
2005	1.15%	$406,003,222	($406,003,222)	$710,404,677	$13,220,850,127
2006	1.10%	$420,082,714	($420,082,714)	$727,146,757	$13,527,914,170
2007	1.05%	$435,936,752	($435,936,752)	$744,035,279	$13,836,012,697
2008	1.00%	$453,353,227	($453,353,227)	$760,980,698	$14,143,640,168
2009	0.95%	$475,218,960	($475,218,960)	$777,900,209	$14,446,321,418
2010	0.90%	$498,607,079	($498,607,079)	$794,547,678	$14,742,262,017
2011	0.85%	$521,738,918	($521,738,918)	$810,824,411	$15,031,347,509
2012	0.80%	$544,746,228	($544,746,228)	$826,724,113	$15,313,325,394
2013	0.75%	$570,326,853	($570,326,853)	$842,232,897	$15,585,231,438
2014	0.70%	$607,088,442	($607,088,442)	$857,187,729	$15,835,330,725
2015	0.65%	$641,318,504	($641,318,504)	$870,943,190	$16,064,955,411
2016	0.60%	$675,789,613	($675,789,613)	$883,572,548	$16,272,738,346
2017	0.55%	$711,387,630	($711,387,630)	$895,000,609	$16,456,351,325
2018	0.50%	$748,826,763	($748,826,763)	$905,099,323	$16,612,623,885
2019	0.45%	$788,840,735	($788,840,735)	$913,694,314	$16,737,477,463
2020	0.40%	$830,485,279	($830,485,279)	$920,561,260	$16,827,553,445
2021	0.35%	$873,450,325	($873,450,325)	$925,515,439	$16,879,618,559
2022	0.30%	$918,555,296	($918,555,296)	$928,379,021	$16,889,442,284
2023	0.25%	$964,785,273	($964,785,273)	$928,919,326	$16,853,576,337
2024	0.20%	$1,010,997,178	($1,010,997,178)	$926,946,699	$16,769,525,857
2025	0.15%	$1,051,467,686	($1,051,467,686)	$922,323,922	$16,640,382,093
2026	0.10%	$1,091,500,419	($1,091,500,419)	$915,221,015	$16,464,102,689
2027	0.05%	$1,130,583,090	($1,130,583,090)	$905,525,648	$16,239,045,247
2028	0.00%	$1,175,498,361	($1,175,498,361)	$893,147,489	$15,956,694,375
2029		$1,218,884,352	($1,218,884,352)	$877,618,191	$15,615,428,214
2030		$1,259,388,482	($1,259,388,482)	$858,848,552	$15,214,888,283
2031		$1,297,206,584	($1,297,206,584)	$836,818,856	$14,754,500,555
2032		$1,332,152,908	($1,332,152,908)	$811,497,531	$14,233,845,177
2033		$1,362,678,962	($1,362,678,962)	$782,861,485	$13,654,027,700
2034		$1,387,886,263	($1,387,886,263)	$750,971,524	$13,017,112,961
2035		$1,409,497,229	($1,409,497,229)	$715,941,213	$12,323,556,944
2036		$1,367,252,321	($1,367,252,321)	$677,795,632	$11,634,100,255
2037		$1,324,778,814	($1,324,778,814)	$639,875,514	$10,949,196,955
2038		$1,279,318,047	($1,279,318,047)	$602,205,833	$10,272,084,741
2039		$1,232,511,736	($1,232,511,736)	$564,964,661	$9,604,537,666
2040		$1,184,376,631	($1,184,376,631)	$528,249,572	$8,948,410,606
2041		$1,134,242,134	($1,134,242,134)	$492,162,583	$8,306,331,056
2042		$1,084,450,728	($1,084,450,728)	$456,848,208	$7,678,728,536
2043		$1,032,936,654	($1,032,936,654)	$422,330,069	$7,068,121,951
2044		$980,129,999	($980,129,999)	$388,746,707	$6,476,738,660
2045		$926,770,341	($926,770,341)	$356,220,626	$5,906,188,945
2046		$872,659,497	($872,659,497)	$324,840,392	$5,358,369,840
2047		$816,959,629	($816,959,629)	$294,710,341	$4,836,120,552
2048		$761,196,923	($761,196,923)	$265,986,630	$4,340,910,259
2049		$708,250,503	($708,250,503)	$238,750,064	$3,871,409,821
2050		$656,178,479	($656,178,479)	$212,927,540	$3,428,158,882
2051		$608,484,967	($608,484,967)	$188,548,738	$3,008,222,653
2052		$556,938,026	($556,938,026)	$165,452,246	$2,616,736,873
2053		$505,136,309	($505,136,309)	$143,920,528	$2,255,521,092
2054		$455,557,492	($455,557,492)	$124,053,660	$1,924,017,260
2055		$406,520,697	($406,520,697)	$105,820,949	$1,623,317,513
2056		$359,268,303	($359,268,303)	$89,282,463	$1,353,331,673
2057		$314,124,815	($314,124,815)	$74,433,242	$1,113,640,100
2058		$271,706,043	($271,706,043)	$61,250,205	$903,184,262
2059		$232,173,320	($232,173,320)	$49,675,134	$720,686,077
2060		$196,177,094	($196,177,094)	$39,637,734	$564,146,717
2061		$163,063,635	($163,063,635)	$31,028,069	$432,111,151
2062		$133,150,029	($133,150,029)	$23,766,113	$322,727,236
2063		$106,767,676	($106,767,676)	$17,749,998	$233,709,558
2064		$84,287,920	($84,287,920)	$12,854,026	$162,275,663
2065		$65,478,080	($65,478,080)	$8,925,161	$105,722,745
2066		$50,128,437	($50,128,437)	$5,814,751	$61,409,059
2067		$37,878,349	($37,878,349)	$3,377,498	$26,908,208
2068		$28,387,890	($28,387,890)	$1,479,951	$269
2069		$0	$0	$15	$284
2070		$0	$0	$16	$300
2071		$0	$0	$16	$316
2072		$0	$0	$17	$334
2073		$0	$0	$18	$352
2074		$0	$0	$19	$371
2075		$0	$0	$20	$392
2076		$0	$0	$22	$413
2077		$0	$0	$23	$436
2078		$0	$0	$24	$460
2079		$0	$0	$25	$485
2080		$0	$0	$27	$512
2081		$0	$0	$28	$540
2082		$0	$0	$30	$570
2083		$0	$0	$31	$601
2084		$0	$0	$33	$634
2085		$0	$0	$35	$669
2086		$0	$0	$37	$706
2087		$0	$0	$39	$745
2088		$0	$0	$41	$786
2089		$0	$0	$43	$829
2090		$0	$0	$46	$875
2091		$0	$0	$48	$923
2092		$0	$0	$51	$974
2093		$0	$0	$54	$1,027
2094		$0	$0	$56	$1,084
2095		$0	$0	$60	$1,143
2096		$0	$0	$63	$1,206
2097		$0	$0	$66	$1,272
2098		$0	$0	$70	$1,342
2099		$0	$0	$74	$1,416
2100		$0	$0	$78	$1,494

TABLE 2 COLD TURKEY OASI PROJECTED BENEFIT
YEAR ELIGIBLE TO RETIRE	AVG INDEX WAGE	BEND POINTS		PROJECTED CURRENT BENEFIT	COLD TURKEY BENEFIT	COLD TURKEY AVG INDEX WAGE	PER CENT OF NO COLD TURKEY
YEAR ELIGIBLE TO RETIRE	AVG INDEX WAGE	FIRST	SECOND	PROJECTED CURRENT BENEFIT	COLD TURKEY BENEFIT	COLD TURKEY AVG INDEX WAGE	PER CENT OF NO COLD TURKEY
1999	$2,159	$437	$2,635	$11,922	$11,922	$2,159	100.0%
2000	$2,229	$455	$2,741	$12,333	$12,333	$2,229	100.0%
2001	$2,300	$477	$2,875	$12,782	$12,782	$2,300	100.0%
2002	$2,374	$477	$2,875	$13,079	$13,079	$2,374	100.0%
2003	$2,449	$492	$2,967	$13,498	$13,498	$2,449	100.0%
2004	$2,528	$508	$3,062	$13,930	$13,930	$2,528	100.0%
2005	$2,609	$524	$3,160	$14,375	$14,375	$2,609	100.0%
2006	$2,692	$541	$3,261	$14,835	$14,835	$2,692	100.0%
2007	$2,778	$558	$3,365	$15,310	$15,310	$2,778	100.0%
2008	$2,867	$576	$3,473	$15,800	$15,800	$2,867	100.0%
2009	$2,959	$595	$3,584	$16,306	$16,306	$2,959	100.0%
2010	$3,054	$614	$3,699	$16,827	$16,475	$2,966	97.9%
2011	$3,151	$633	$3,817	$17,366	$16,639	$2,971	95.8%
2012	$3,252	$654	$3,939	$17,922	$16,796	$2,974	93.7%
2013	$3,356	$675	$4,066	$18,495	$16,946	$2,973	91.6%
2014	$3,464	$696	$4,196	$19,087	$17,088	$2,969	89.5%
2015	$3,575	$718	$4,330	$19,698	$17,223	$2,962	87.4%
2016	$3,689	$741	$4,468	$20,328	$17,348	$2,951	85.3%
2017	$3,807	$765	$4,611	$20,979	$17,464	$2,937	83.2%
2018	$3,929	$790	$4,759	$21,650	$18,023	$3,031	83.2%
2019	$4,055	$815	$4,911	$22,343	$18,131	$3,012	81.2%
2020	$4,184	$841	$5,068	$23,058	$18,229	$2,989	79.1%
2021	$4,318	$868	$5,231	$23,795	$18,314	$2,961	77.0%
2022	$4,456	$896	$5,398	$24,557	$18,385	$2,928	74.9%
2023	$4,599	$924	$5,571	$25,343	$18,443	$2,891	72.8%
2024	$4,746	$954	$5,749	$26,154	$18,485	$2,848	70.7%
2025	$4,898	$984	$5,933	$26,991	$18,512	$2,799	68.6%
2026	$5,055	$1,016	$6,123	$27,854	$18,521	$2,744	66.5%
2027	$5,217	$1,048	$6,319	$28,746	$18,511	$2,683	64.4%
2028	$5,383	$1,082	$6,521	$29,666	$18,482	$2,615	62.3%
2029	$5,556	$1,117	$6,730	$30,615	$18,433	$2,540	60.2%
2030	$5,734	$1,152	$6,945	$31,595	$18,361	$2,457	58.1%
2031	$5,917	$1,189	$7,167	$32,606	$18,266	$2,367	56.0%
2032	$6,106	$1,227	$7,397	$33,649	$18,145	$2,268	53.9%
2033	$6,302	$1,266	$7,633	$34,726	$17,999	$2,161	51.8%
2034	$6,503	$1,307	$7,877	$35,837	$17,824	$2,044	49.7%
2035	$6,712	$1,349	$8,130	$36,984	$17,620	$1,918	47.6%
2036	$6,926	$1,392	$8,390	$38,167	$0	$0	0.0%
2037	$7,148	$1,437	$8,658	$39,389	$0	$0	0.0%
2038	$7,377	$1,482	$8,935	$40,649	$0	$0	0.0%
2039	$7,613	$1,530	$9,221	$41,950	$0	$0	0.0%
2040	$7,856	$1,579	$9,516	$43,292	$0	$0	0.0%
2041	$8,108	$1,629	$9,821	$44,677	$0	$0	0.0%
2042	$8,367	$1,682	$10,135	$46,107	$0	$0	0.0%
2043	$8,635	$1,735	$10,459	$47,583	$0	$0	0.0%
2044	$8,911	$1,791	$10,794	$49,105	$0	$0	0.0%
2045	$9,196	$1,848	$11,139	$50,677	$0	$0	0.0%
2046	$9,491	$1,907	$11,496	$52,298	$0	$0	0.0%
2047	$9,794	$1,968	$11,864	$53,972	$0	$0	0.0%
2048	$10,108	$2,031	$12,243	$55,699	$0	$0	0.0%
2049	$10,431	$2,096	$12,635	$57,481	$0	$0	0.0%
2050	$10,765	$2,163	$13,040	$59,321	$0	$0	0.0%
2051	$11,110	$2,233	$13,457	$61,219	$0	$0	0.0%
2052	$11,465	$2,304	$13,887	$63,178	$0	$0	0.0%
2053	$11,832	$2,378	$14,332	$65,200	$0	$0	0.0%
2054	$12,211	$2,454	$14,790	$67,286	$0	$0	0.0%
2055	$12,601	$2,532	$15,264	$69,439	$0	$0	0.0%
2056	$13,005	$2,613	$15,752	$71,661	$0	$0	0.0%
2057	$13,421	$2,697	$16,256	$73,954	$0	$0	0.0%
2058	$13,850	$2,783	$16,776	$76,321	$0	$0	0.0%
2059	$14,293	$2,873	$17,313	$78,763	$0	$0	0.0%
2060	$14,751	$2,964	$17,867	$81,284	$0	$0	0.0%
2061	$15,223	$3,059	$18,439	$83,885	$0	$0	0.0%
2062	$15,710	$3,157	$19,029	$86,569	$0	$0	0.0%
2063	$16,213	$3,258	$19,638	$89,339	$0	$0	0.0%
2064	$16,731	$3,362	$20,267	$92,198	$0	$0	0.0%
2065	$17,267	$3,470	$20,915	$95,148	$0	$0	0.0%
2066	$17,819	$3,581	$21,584	$98,193	$0	$0	0.0%
2067	$18,390	$3,696	$22,275	$101,335	$0	$0	0.0%
2068	$18,978	$3,814	$22,988	$104,578	$0	$0	0.0%
2069	$19,585	$3,936	$23,723	$107,925	$0	$0	0.0%
2070	$20,212	$4,062	$24,483	$111,378	$0	$0	0.0%
2071	$20,859	$4,192	$25,266	$114,942	$0	$0	0.0%
2072	$21,526	$4,326	$26,075	$118,620	$0	$0	0.0%
2073	$22,215	$4,465	$26,909	$122,416	$0	$0	0.0%
2074	$22,926	$4,607	$27,770	$126,334	$0	$0	0.0%
2075	$23,660	$4,755	$28,659	$130,376	$0	$0	0.0%
2076	$24,417	$4,907	$29,576	$134,548	$0	$0	0.0%
2077	$25,198	$5,064	$30,522	$138,854	$0	$0	0.0%
2078	$26,004	$5,226	$31,499	$143,297	$0	$0	0.0%
2079	$26,837	$5,393	$32,507	$147,883	$0	$0	0.0%
2080	$27,695	$5,566	$33,547	$152,615	$0	$0	0.0%
2081	$28,582	$5,744	$34,621	$157,498	$0	$0	0.0%
2082	$29,496	$5,928	$35,728	$162,538	$0	$0	0.0%
2083	$30,440	$6,117	$36,872	$167,740	$0	$0	0.0%
2084	$31,414	$6,313	$38,052	$173,107	$0	$0	0.0%
2085	$32,419	$6,515	$39,269	$178,647	$0	$0	0.0%
2086	$33,457	$6,724	$40,526	$184,363	$0	$0	0.0%
2087	$34,527	$6,939	$41,823	$190,263	$0	$0	0.0%
2088	$35,632	$7,161	$43,161	$196,352	$0	$0	0.0%
2089	$36,773	$7,390	$44,542	$202,635	$0	$0	0.0%
2090	$37,949	$7,627	$45,968	$209,119	$0	$0	0.0%
2091	$39,164	$7,871	$47,438	$215,811	$0	$0	0.0%
2092	$40,417	$8,123	$48,957	$222,717	$0	$0	0.0%
2093	$41,710	$8,382	$50,523	$229,844	$0	$0	0.0%
2094	$43,045	$8,651	$52,140	$237,199	$0	$0	0.0%
2095	$44,422	$8,928	$53,808	$244,789	$0	$0	0.0%
2096	$45,844	$9,213	$55,530	$252,622	$0	$0	0.0%
2097	$47,311	$9,508	$57,307	$260,706	$0	$0	0.0%
2098	$48,825	$9,812	$59,141	$269,049	$0	$0	0.0%
2099	$50,387	$10,126	$61,034	$277,658	$0	$0	0.0%
2100	$52,000	$10,450	$62,987	$286,544	$0	$0	0.0%