STATUS OF OASI FROM 1999 TO 2100
October 24, 1998
©1998 Larsen
This table shows the OASI in several different perspectives.
NEW OASI RATE is the rate required to phase out Social Security. People at the age in the first column will pay this OASI rate until the last retiree dies. However, they will not receive any benefits. People over the age in the first column continue to pay the full OASI rate and receive full benefits.
BALANCE REQUIRED IN 1999. This column represents the amount of money required to be on account in 1999 to pay all people full benefits over the age in the first column while they continue to pay the full OASI rate. No one equal to or under the age in the first column pays any OASI tax. Any tax paid is forfeited.
BENEFIT CUT REQUIRED. This is the amount of benefit cut required to keep OASI solvent until the last person has died paying full OASI tax. Those under the age in the first column will not pay any OASI tax.
OASI TAX TILL 2100. This is the OASI rate required to pay all people over the age in column one full benefits. Those over the age in column one will receive full benefits and pay the full OASI tax of 10.4% Those equal to or under the age in column one will pay this tax until 2100 without any benefits.
ROR. This is the rate of return the OASI fund must earn till the year evaluated to pay full benefits without any change in tax rates. All workers pay the current OASI tax rate.
WAGE GROWTH. This is the required wage growth each year from 1999 to year being evaluated to pay full benefits without tax increases with all workers paying the current OASI tax rate. Note this is not economic growth. Economic growth is wage growth and population growth. Therefore, on average economic growth will be about 1.5% points greater than listed.
OBSERVATIONS
As the date of evaluation moves further out, the growth rate increases. At no point does the growth rate decrease. This is primarily due to the large unfunded balance being paid for out of future taxes. As wage growth increases, so do future benefits. Therefore, it is similar to a dog chasing its tale.
Rate of Return (ROR). This rates increases each year till 2036 a which time those currently 63 and over have died. The ROR then begins to drop thereafter. This is due solely to financing of the unfunded balance by subsequent generations. This also shows the generation most responsible for the unfunded balance to be those now 62 and will be 63 in 1999.
When financing the "Transition" using future tax revenues from workers who do not receive benenifits, it is the same thing as issuing new debt. This new debt is then paid back using OASI revenues from workers. The amount of new debt required if one were to cut off benefits for those who are 32 and below is greater than $32 Trillion! Where does this money come from?
AGE |
NEW OASI RATE |
BALANCE REQUIRED IN 1999 (thousands) |
BENEFIT CUT REQUIRED |
OASI TAX TILL 2100 |
ROR |
WAGE GROWTH |
YEAR |
| -1 | 4.18% | 2100 | |||||
| 0 | 4.17% | 2099 | |||||
| 1 | 4.17% | 2098 | |||||
| 2 | 4.16% | 2097 | |||||
| 3 | 4.16% | 2096 | |||||
| 4 | 4.15% | 2095 | |||||
| 5 | 4.15% | 2094 | |||||
| 6 | 4.14% | 2093 | |||||
| 7 | 4.13% | 2092 | |||||
| 8 | 4.13% | 2091 | |||||
| 9 | 4.12% | 2090 | |||||
| 10 | 4.12% | 2089 | |||||
| 11 | 4.11% | 2088 | |||||
| 12 | 4.10% | 2087 | |||||
| 13 | 4.10% | 2086 | |||||
| 14 | 4.09% | 2085 | |||||
| 15 | 4.08% | 2084 | |||||
| 16 | 4.07% | 2083 | |||||
| 17 | 4.07% | 2082 | |||||
| 18 | 4.06% | 2081 | |||||
| 19 | 4.05% | 2080 | |||||
| 20 | 4.04% | 2079 | |||||
| 21 | 8.80% | $10,696,372,188 | 58.15% | 7.40% | 15.83% | 4.03% | 2078 |
| 22 | 8.73% | $10,704,447,586 | 59.00% | 7.28% | 16.39% | 4.02% | 2077 |
| 23 | 8.66% | $10,712,011,628 | 59.88% | 7.17% | 16.99% | 4.01% | 2076 |
| 24 | 8.58% | $10,706,453,948 | 60.72% | 7.06% | 17.61% | 4.00% | 2075 |
| 25 | 8.51% | $10,701,205,109 | 61.58% | 6.96% | 18.27% | 3.99% | 2074 |
| 26 | 8.44% | $10,698,528,899 | 62.52% | 6.85% | 19.00% | 3.98% | 2073 |
| 27 | 8.36% | $10,696,984,561 | 63.53% | 6.74% | 19.82% | 3.97% | 2072 |
| 28 | 8.27% | $10,676,958,666 | 64.52% | 6.63% | 20.68% | 3.96% | 2071 |
| 29 | 8.18% | $10,641,745,848 | 65.47% | 6.51% | 21.56% | 3.94% | 2070 |
| 30 | 8.09% | $10,599,334,248 | 66.39% | 6.40% | 22.45% | 3.93% | 2069 |
| 31 | 8.01% | $10,555,293,930 | 67.34% | 6.28% | 23.40% | 3.92% | 2068 |
| 32 | 7.92% | $10,503,795,537 | 68.31% | 6.17% | 24.40% | 3.90% | 2067 |
| 33 | 7.82% | $10,450,273,420 | 69.36% | 6.05% | 25.49% | 3.89% | 2066 |
| 34 | 7.72% | $10,381,740,278 | 70.43% | 5.93% | 26.66% | 3.87% | 2065 |
| 35 | 7.61% | $10,297,340,038 | 71.51% | 5.81% | 27.88% | 3.85% | 2064 |
| 36 | 7.49% | $10,201,889,930 | 72.60% | 5.68% | 29.15% | 3.83% | 2063 |
| 37 | 7.37% | $10,090,853,470 | 73.68% | 5.55% | 30.45% | 3.82% | 2062 |
| 38 | 7.24% | $9,969,434,423 | 74.77% | 5.41% | 31.78% | 3.80% | 2061 |
| 39 | 7.11% | $9,834,475,955 | 75.84% | 5.28% | 33.13% | 3.77% | 2060 |
| 40 | 6.99% | $9,691,877,835 | 76.91% | 5.14% | 34.49% | 3.75% | 2059 |
| 41 | 6.85% | $9,535,272,923 | 77.95% | 5.01% | 35.85% | 3.73% | 2058 |
| 42 | 6.73% | $9,380,985,250 | 78.96% | 4.88% | 37.17% | 3.70% | 2057 |
| 43 | 6.61% | $9,218,357,304 | 79.94% | 4.75% | 38.49% | 3.68% | 2056 |
| 44 | 6.48% | $9,038,211,256 | 80.86% | 4.61% | 39.79% | 3.65% | 2055 |
| 45 | 6.35% | $8,844,809,545 | 81.72% | 4.48% | 41.05% | 3.62% | 2054 |
| 46 | 6.21% | $8,640,746,546 | 82.53% | 4.34% | 42.27% | 3.59% | 2053 |
| 47 | 6.07% | $8,421,720,248 | 83.25% | 4.20% | 43.45% | 3.56% | 2052 |
| 48 | 5.95% | $8,219,867,089 | 83.99% | 4.07% | 44.63% | 3.52% | 2051 |
| 49 | 5.82% | $8,004,141,139 | 84.66% | 3.94% | 45.80% | 3.49% | 2050 |
| 50 | 5.68% | $7,775,585,166 | 85.29% | 3.81% | 46.94% | 3.45% | 2049 |
| 51 | 5.53% | $7,539,836,559 | 85.96% | 3.67% | 48.16% | 3.41% | 2048 |
| 52 | 5.36% | $7,255,713,957 | 86.24% | 3.51% | 49.05% | 3.37% | 2047 |
| 53 | 5.20% | $6,983,234,654 | 86.52% | 3.37% | 49.95% | 3.33% | 2046 |
| 54 | 5.04% | $6,710,678,064 | 86.77% | 3.22% | 50.84% | 3.28% | 2045 |
| 55 | 4.91% | $6,474,810,764 | 87.07% | 3.09% | 51.76% | 3.24% | 2044 |
| 56 | 4.76% | $6,215,325,235 | 87.20% | 2.96% | 52.56% | 3.18% | 2043 |
| 57 | 4.60% | $5,947,435,189 | 87.23% | 2.82% | 53.28% | 3.13% | 2042 |
| 58 | 4.44% | $5,667,269,189 | 87.13% | 2.68% | 53.93% | 3.06% | 2041 |
| 59 | 4.28% | $5,405,868,494 | 87.00% | 2.54% | 54.54% | 3.00% | 2040 |
| 60 | 4.13% | $5,145,684,652 | 86.78% | 2.41% | 55.07% | 2.92% | 2039 |
| 61 | 3.97% | $4,883,553,033 | 86.43% | 2.28% | 55.46% | 2.85% | 2038 |
| 62 | 3.80% | $4,615,280,772 | 85.95% | 2.14% | 55.70% | 2.77% | 2037 |
| 63 | 3.63% | $4,341,950,779 | 85.32% | 2.01% | 55.70% | 2.68% | 2036 |
| 64 | 3.45% | $4,069,494,542 | 84.51% | 1.87% | 55.33% | 2.59% | 2035 |
| 65 | 3.26% | $3,793,093,284 | 83.47% | 1.73% | 54.37% | 2.50% | 2034 |
| 66 | 3.05% | $3,507,044,701 | 82.24% | 1.59% | 52.83% | 2.41% | 2033 |
| 67 | 2.85% | $3,232,548,243 | 80.88% | 1.45% | 50.61% | 2.31% | 2032 |
| 68 | 2.63% | $2,971,675,062 | 79.25% | 1.31% | 47.37% | 2.21% | 2031 |
| 69 | 2.40% | $2,721,977,533 | 76.77% | 1.17% | 42.83% | 2.10% | 2030 |
| 70 | 2.15% | $2,475,802,313 | 73.82% | 1.02% | 38.38% | 2.00% | 2029 |
| 71 | 1.91% | $2,238,237,589 | 70.36% | 0.88% | 34.10% | 1.90% | 2028 |
| 72 | 1.67% | $2,014,245,827 | 66.34% | 0.75% | 30.07% | 1.80% | 2027 |
| 73 | 1.43% | $1,801,654,908 | 61.57% | 0.63% | 26.17% | 1.70% | 2026 |
| 74 | 1.20% | $1,606,994,024 | 56.09% | 0.51% | 22.54% | 1.60% | 2025 |
| 75 | 0.98% | $1,424,916,918 | 49.60% | 0.40% | 19.06% | 1.49% | 2024 |
| 76 | 0.75% | $1,251,273,605 | 41.66% | 0.30% | 15.62% | 1.39% | 2023 |
| 77 | 0.52% | $1,088,612,189 | 31.94% | 0.20% | 12.24% | 1.27% | 2022 |
| 78 | 0.30% | $943,983,377 | 20.48% | 0.11% | 9.06% | 1.16% | 2021 |
| 79 | 0.09% | $812,279,014 | 6.51% | 0.03% | 5.95% | 1.03% | 2020 |
| 80 | -0.12% | $695,009,650 | -10.34% | -0.04% | 2.95% | 0.90% | 2019 |
| 81 | $599,548,395 | 0.26% | 0.76% | 2018 | |||
| 82 | $517,187,994 | -2.32% | 0.61% | 2017 | |||
| 83 | $444,585,826 | -4.87% | 0.44% | 2016 | |||
| 84 | $380,320,773 | -7.43% | 0.25% | 2015 | |||
| 85 | $319,256,313 | -10.00% | 0.05% | 2014 | |||
| 86 | $262,909,718 | -0.19% | 2013 | ||||
| 87 | $214,139,102 | -0.44% | 2012 | ||||
| 88 | $173,612,850 | -0.71% | 2011 | ||||
| 89 | $141,099,973 | -1.04% | 2010 | ||||
| 90 | $113,681,279 | -1.42% | 2009 | ||||
| 91 | $89,691,239 | -1.89% | 2008 | ||||
| 92 | $70,802,206 | -2.47% | 2007 | ||||
| 93 | $53,144,215 | -3.22% | 2006 | ||||
| 94 | $39,969,436 | -4.23% | 2005 | ||||
| 95 | $26,833,616 | -5.65% | 2004 | ||||
| 96 | $17,636,460 | -7.75% | 2003 | ||||
| 97 | $10,272,413 | 2002 | |||||
| 98 | 2001 | ||||||
| 99 | 1999 |
